VALUE BET - BETTING STRUCTURE

VALUE is achieved when the odds on a horse are far greater than our assessment and probability of the horse having a winning chance. We TAKE ON THE FANCIED RUNNERS and are not afraid to select an outsider at BIG ODDS to be part of our selections.  Too often punters limit the investment on a +10/1 horse to the bare minimum. We are confident in our analysis and assessment using the COMPETING FACTORS FRAMEWORK -  if a 20/1 pops upon our radar then we treat it as if it was a 3/1 horse and INCLUDE it in our structure of bets for the meeting.

We complete all our analysis after validating the COMPETING FACTORS  and come to our short list of VALUE BETS  for the meeting. We normally land on three or four horses as a foundation for the meeting and plan our INVESTMENT around these horses. The horses will likely range in odds and we have different levels of confidence for each selection, based on the data not the horses odds. VALUE BET primarily invests on WIN BETS only and reverts to EACH WAY BETS on horses that are above 10/1. DOUBLE BETS are applied with limited investment and seen as an INVESTMENT LEVERAGE in order to cover any later risk on non-performance. 

VALUE BET MAIN TRADES

             WIN:   if 3/1 ≤ odds ≤ 10/1

WITHOUT FAV: if odds > 7/1

EACH WAY : if odds > 10/1

DOUBLES/ TREBLES: if odds < 3/1

We rank our selections but are well aware this is horse racing and there is a decent chance our least fancied prediction ends up being our best performer. PREDICTING winners for the entire card is highly unlikely so we choose our top THREE, FOUR or FIVE selections and FOCUS on these within our betting model. These selections form our foundation investments for the meeting with  WIN or EACH WAY bets applied to all our selections depending on their price. Furthermore we see the potential to include the foundation selections in DOUBLES & TREBLES if the odds are not attractive on any horses. We allocate investment value based on confidence but do not let the odds decide on the bet value. We do not to back more than two horses to win in a single race. 

We trust the DATA and STATISTICS. Backing FAVOURITES on average will not offer a decent return on investment as on average only 30% of FAVOURITES WIN and the chances of success will need to beat all the well recorded statistics. For example, if one backed 10 even money (1/1) horses, 6 out of the 10 would need to win for you make a tiny profit equal to backing a 1/5 horse. That's only if 60%  of the favourites win which is double the amount of 30% of favourites that win on average - WE TAKE ON THE FAVOURITES AND CERTAINLY STAY CLEAR OF SHORT PRICED HORSES EVEN THOUGH SOME MAY WIN.

A friend of mine once had an analyst role for one of the Big 5 bookmakers in the UK.  He shared some facts that the bookmakers make a vast amount of their profits on punters trying to win accumulators and chasing the big bucks. We stay clear of accumulator bets and rather focus on quality, identifying  VALUE WIN BETS and at times DOUBLES & TREBLES rather than accumulators needing four or five horses to win. We appreciate the excitement of high risk exotic bets and the huge payouts but this is not part of our strategy

VALUE BET believe to succeed in MAKING PROFIT punting RACEHORSES one needs to apply STRICT DISCIPLINE.  It's so easy to stray from your investing strategy and often losing money leads to chasing losses with highly speculative bets and straying from PROVEN analysis. THIS IS DANGEROUS !  As a teenager in the 80's, I once saw an inebriated gambler trying to sell his shirt to bookies for a few rand to have a bet. A very sad sight indeed and he clearly did not understand or apply DISCIPLINE.  Stick to the budget and don't stray from the strategy unless it's a small speculative bet that popped up at the last minute due to circumstance